欢迎登录材料期刊网

材料期刊网

高级检索

为了度量和比较中国金、银、铂3种主要贵金属现货投资的风险与收益,在验证3种贵金属现货资产收益率序列具有尖峰、厚尾和波动集聚性特征的基础上,运用基于GED-GARCH模型的VaR方法度量3种贵金属现货的投资风险,并以同期上证综指的表现为参照基准,依据RAROC指标对3种贵金属现货的投资绩效进行比较和评价。实证结果表明,黄金资产的风险最小,铂金次之,两者均小于同期上证综指,白银资产的风险与同期上证综指相当;从风险调整后的综合业绩表现来看,投资黄金的回报最优,白银次之,两者都优于上证综指,而铂金的回报略差于同期上证综指。

In order to measure and compare the risk and performance of gold,silver and platinum spots invest-ments,the paper first proved that the return series of Au(T+D),Ag(T+D) and Pt 99.95 spots had the typical char-acteristics of skewed,leptokurtic,fat tailed and volatility clustering,then used the GED-GARCH model and VaR meth-od to measure the risk of the three assets,and at last compared and evaluated the performance of the three assets with the Shanghai Composite Index based on RAROC index.The results show that the risk of gold is smaller than platinum, and they are both smaller than Shanghai Composite Index,the risk of silver is equal to Shanghai Composite Index;the performance of gold investment is better than silver,and they are both better than Shanghai Composite Index,the per-formance of platinum investment can't catch Shanghai Composite Index.

参考文献

[1] 刘曙光,胡再勇.黄金价格的长期决定因素稳定性分析[J].世界经济研究,2008(02):35-41.
[2] 付丹,梅雪,张晖.黄金价格与通货膨胀相关性的实证分析[J].黄金,2009(01):4-7.
[3] Christie-David R;Chaudhry M;Koch T W .Do Macroeconomics News Releases Affect Gold and Silver Prices[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2000,52(05):405-421.
[4] Tully E;Lucey B M .A power GARCH examination of the gold mar-ket[J].Research in International Business and Finance,2007,21(02):316-325.
[5] Batten J A;Lucey B M .Volatility in the gold futures market[J].Ap-plied Economics Letters,2009,17(02):187-190.
[6] 孙兆学.基于EGARCH模型的中国黄金市场风险与收益研究[J].中国矿业,2008(10):13-17.
[7] 魏宇,黄登仕,王建琼,朱宏泉,余江,赖晓东.我国黄金现货市场的动态VaR预测模型研究[J].管理评论,2010(08):30-38.
[8] 邵莉莉,周乾.基于VAR模型的石油价格与黄金价格的互动关系[J].时代经贸,2011(17):35.
[9] 周茂华,刘骏民,许平祥.基于GARCH族模型的黄金市场的风险度量与预测研究[J].国际金融研究,2011(05):87-96.
[10] 黄健柏,程慧,郭尧琦,邵留国.美元、石油和金属价格--基于VAR模型的实证研究[J].经济经纬,2012(03):45-49.
[11] 郑文通.金融风险管理的VAR方法及其应用[J].国际金融研究,1997(09):58-62.
[12] 王春峰.金融市场风险管理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2001:202-203.
[13] Engle R F .Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with esti-mates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation[J].Econometri-ca:Journal of the Econometric Society,1982,50(04):987-1007.
[14] Bollerslev T .Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic-ity[J].Journal of Econometrics,1986,31(03):307-327.
[15] 高铁梅.计量经济学分析方法与建模---Eviews 应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2009:193-201.
[16] 刘庆富,仲伟俊,梅姝娥.基于VaR-GARCH模型族的我国期铜市场风险度量研究[J].系统工程学报,2006(04):429-433.
[17] 郑秀田.中国黄金现货市场风险度量研究[J].黄金,2011(02):7-10.
[18] 惠晓峰,迟巍.运用RAROC方法对我国证券投资基金业绩评估的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2002(11):113-116.
上一张 下一张
上一张 下一张
计量
  • 下载量()
  • 访问量()
文章评分
  • 您的评分:
  • 1
    0%
  • 2
    0%
  • 3
    0%
  • 4
    0%
  • 5
    0%