采用概率论和数理统计方法,以研究分析2D C/SiC复合材料的弯曲强度分布规律为切入点,比较了失效概率预测值与实验值,用可靠度、风险函数和可靠强度评价了该材料可靠性.通过线性回归分析和拟合优度检验得到正态、对数正态和三参数Weibull分布模型均可表征其弯曲强度分布规律;确定了该材料弯曲强度失效概率、可靠度函数、风险函数和可靠强度的数学模型中的参数,可以预测给定强度条件和许用可靠度条件下的多种可靠性指标;材料弯曲强度均值的三种模型预测值与实测值最大相对误差仅0.07%,计算得到的失效概率曲线与实验弯曲强度的失效分布均符合很好.
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