综合考虑管道服役期内检测及维修活动的影响以及检测数据、管材特性、工作载荷和腐蚀增长率等不确定性因素,将概率论引入油气管道的腐蚀评估,提出了一种油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化模型;该模型可用来优化管道的检测周期及维修准则,使其满足目标可靠度要求;针对管道维修后失效概率需要重新确定的问题,提出了一种近似方法,运用Monte Carlo模拟并验证了其准确性;实例表明,该模型用于油气管道腐蚀评估和维修优化是可行的,易于工程应用.
A new probabilistic model for corrosion assessment and maintenance decision for the in-service oil and gas pipelines was proposed based on a comprehensive consideration of all the known factors such as the impact of inspection and repair activities planned over the service lifecycle,the interpretation of in-line inspection data with possible uncertainties as well as the defect dimensions,pipeline material properties,operational loads,and corrosion rate related with the pipelines.This model is utilized to determine the optimal inspection interval and the repair criterion which optimize the maintenance decision,so that the adequate reliability throughout the pipeline service lifecycle would be maintained.The model is concise and clear because defect inspection,corrosion assessment and maintenance decision are integrated into this model.Therefore,it is worthy of study and practicality for the in-service oil and gas pipeline safety engineering in the field.
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