钢铁企业自备电厂是副产煤气的主要缓冲用户,在消纳富余煤气、减少煤气放散、实现煤气平衡方面发挥着极为重要的作用.充分考虑自备电厂煤气供入量特点,建立了HP-Elman-LSSVM预测模型,并根据自备电厂能源利用的特点,建立拟合模型求解自备电厂锅炉的经济运行负荷,在此基础上对供入自备电厂的煤气进行优化调度.将该模型应用于具体企业,实现了钢铁企业自备电厂煤气预测和优化调度.模型应用表明:所建模型对自备电厂煤气供入量30、45、60个点的预测平均相对误差分别为1.9％、1.4％、1.4％,能有效解决实际生产中自备电厂煤气供入量预测不准问题.并通过煤气优化调度,自备电厂可大幅度提升蒸汽产率,应用企业每年可多产蒸汽约8.1322万t,折合节约标煤9443.955t.
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