针对中低碳钢淬透性评估及辊式淬火机淬火后钢板淬透层深度预测等问题，应用修正格罗斯曼法，分析碳含量、奥氏体晶粒度及合金元素对钢淬透性的影响，同时采用非线性拟合、多元化分析等方法，引入合金影响系数的概念，建立了中低碳钢淬透性预测数学模型。通过计算，将模型预测值与实际值相比较，吻合度较好，平均偏差比未修正时减小60%。研究结果已应用于某钢厂辊式淬火机淬后板材淬透层深度评估中，预测值与实际值偏差在6%以内，基本满足生产需要。
Nowadays, the evaluation of medium and low carbon steel hardenability and the hardenability thickness forecast after quenching has become a spotlight. Modified Grossman method was used to analyze the influencing factors of hardenability, such as carbon content and austenitic grain size. At the same time, nonlinear fitting and multivariate analysis method was used to introduce the concept of alloy interaction parameter. On the basis of these measures, the mathematic models for forecasting medium and low carbon steel hardenability were established. Through comparing the values from forecast model with the actual values, superior similarity was gotten. The average deviation was decreased to 40% of the original values. The conclusion of this thesis has been used in certain medium plants to evaluate the hardenability thickness after quenching in roller quenching machine, and the deviation of forecast value from measured value, which could meet the needs of production, was within 6%.
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