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Establishment of Neural Network Prediction Model for Terminative Temperature Based on Grey Theory in Hot Metal Pretreatment

ZHANG Hui-ning , XU An-jun , CUI Jian , HE Dong-feng , TIAN Nai-yuan

钢铁研究学报(英文版)

In order to improve the accuracy of model for terminative temperature in steelmaking, it is necessary to predict and control before decarburization. Thus, an optimization neural network model of terminative temperature in the process of dephosphorization by laying correlative degree weights to all input factors related was used. Then simulation experiment of model newly established is conducted utilizing 210 data from a domestic steel plant. The results show that hit rate arrives at 5645% when error is within plus or minus 5%, and the value is 100% when within ±10%. Comparing to the traditional neural network prediction model, the accuracy almost increases by 6839%.Thus, the simulation prediction fits the real perfectly, which accounts for that neural network model for terminative temperature based on grey theory can reflect accurately the practice in dephosphorization. Naturally, this method is effective and practicable.

关键词: grey theory , correlation degree , dephosphorization , terminative temperature , neural network model

基于灰色理论的铁水预处理终点磷含量神经网络预测模型

张慧宁,徐安军,崔健,贺东风,田乃媛

钢铁

在传统BP神经网络预测模型的基础上,依据灰色理论中的灰色关联度,提出了输出变量各个影响因素的灰色关联度权值,首次建立基于灰色理论的神经网络预测模型,并依据国内某钢厂300组实际生产数据进行仿真试验。试验结果表明:误差绝对值小于5%的炉数有39炉,占总炉数的65.00%;误差绝对值小于10%的炉数共有58炉,占到96.67%。与传统BP神经网络相比,基于灰色理论的神经网络模型的预测精度提高近12.5%,说明基于灰色理论的铁水预处理终点磷含量神经网络预测模型能更精确地反映现场实际水平。

关键词: 灰色理论 , correlation degree , terminative phosphorus content , neural network model

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